ADVANC Q2 2026: Profit +26% vs EBITDA +8% — Thai Stock Case File #3

Written 3 November 2026 · Thai Stock Case File #3 · case TH-2026-W45-C · based on the company's filings and the Opportunity Day recording as of that date — before the Q3 2026 results

Advanced Info Service (ADVANC, also known as AIS), the mobile and broadband operator in Thailand's SET50 index, first half of 2026: net profit grew 26% but EBITDA grew 8% — where does the gap come from, and can it be a new base?

ADVANC · FY2026 Q2: "EBIT was Bt19,160mn, increasing 23% YoY in-line with EBITDA growth, supported by lower depreciation and amortization, following the end of the 2100MHz roaming agreement with NT"

— MD&A Q2 2026, page 6 · original filing (SEC)

That sentence points at one line of the income statement: depreciation. This case file follows it — through the company's own table of what the NT contract was worth, five years of balance sheets, what management said when an investor asked the question directly, and how a competitor booked the same event on the same day. Every number has a page or a minute; where the documents stop, I say so.

Note: "DELTA" in the video is a Boom Leverage Terminal subscription plan. It has nothing to do with DELTA the stock.

The short version

• The NT contract added revenue and cost of equal size — 5.0 billion baht each — so its end did not move EBITDA. The company's own table says "No impact". What it did move is depreciation (2.2 billion baht), which sits below EBITDA.
• The balance sheet changed shape in 2026. A one-time special dividend of 19 baht a share halved total equity; net debt to EBITDA went from 1.7x to 2.0x, against a ceiling the company sets at 2.5x.
• What is still unknown: how much of the 26% vs 8% gap each cause explains quarter by quarter. The company's split is annual only.

The question

ADVANC's net profit grew 26% in the first half of 2026 and EBITDA grew 8%. Where does the difference come from, and do the documents support calling it a new base?

Why now: the Q3 2026 results are not out yet as of this writing (last year the Q3 MD&A was filed on 4 November). So this file is a reading of what the latest documents already say, and of what to check when Q3 arrives.

What this file covers, stated up front:

• ADVANC's MD&As in English, as filed: Q2 2026 (pages 2, 4, 6–11), Q4 2025 & FY2025 (pages 3, 8, 9), Q3 2025 (page 6), Q2 2025 (page 8), FY2024 (page 4) and FY2023 (page 5). Figures in million baht unless stated.
• The Q2 2026 Opportunity Day recording of 7 August 2026 — the Stock Exchange of Thailand's quarterly session where management answers investors on the record. ADVANC presented in Thai; spoken words are an AI transcript, checked with a second, independent speech model. I quote only passages where both agree, and the English below is our translation.
• TRUE's Q2 2026 MD&A, for one narrow question: how the same NT event shows up in another operator's accounts. Not a ranking.
• The latest Form 246-2 major-shareholder filing.
• It does not cover share price, valuation or forecasts — including any forecast of Q3 profit.

ADVANC in 60 seconds

ADVANC is the listed parent of AIS (its operating subsidiary AWN holds the spectrum licences). From the Q2 2026 MD&A (pages 4 and 8):

The integration of TTTBB (3BB), the fixed-broadband business it bought, is something the company "continue[s] to expect … to be completed within 2026" (page 2).

First half 2026 against the company's own guidance (page 2, 1H26 Performance Highlight):

Both revenue and EBITDA ran ahead of guidance. Net profit ran much further ahead. That last gap is the question.

Finding 1 — Which lines grew

The Q2 profit-and-loss table (page 8), Q2 2025 against Q2 2026:

Two things fell sharply at the same time: a revenue line and a cost line that both carry "NT partnership" in their names. And depreciation fell 6.3%. The company explains why, on page 6:

ADVANC · FY2026 Q2: "decreasing –6.3% YoY mainly due to lower amortized right-of-use assets following the expiration of the 2100MHz NT agreement in Aug25"

— MD&A Q2 2026, page 6 (depreciation and amortisation) · original filing (SEC)

And on page 2 it names three reasons for Q2 net profit growth, in this order:

ADVANC · FY2026 Q2: "Net profit reached Bt 13,716 mn, increasing 25% YoY, on stronger operating performance, spectrum cost saving, and lower network depreciation."

— MD&A Q2 2026, page 2 · original filing (SEC)

Over the half year (page 8, 1H columns), depreciation went from 28,647 to 26,446 and net profit from 21,565 to 27,212. Calculated by us: that is 2,201 less depreciation and 5,647 more net profit. Depreciation is pre-tax and net profit is after tax, so the two are not directly subtractable — I put them side by side only to show the order of magnitude.

Why this matters for the question: EBITDA is earnings before depreciation. Anything that lowers depreciation lifts EBIT and net profit, and leaves EBITDA untouched. That alone can open a gap between the two growth rates.

Finding 2 — The NT contract, in the company's own table

Here the company does something many filers do not: it prints the accounting effect of the contract in one table.

Summary of accounting impact from 2100MHz National Telecom contract expiry and recent auction (MD&A Q2 2026, page 10 · billion baht):

"The 2100MHz contract with NT expired on 3 August 2025." — footnote, page 10. The company had already written a year earlier that "The 2100 MHz contract with NT will expire on 3 August 2025" (MD&A Q2 2025, page 8).

Read the left column. Revenue 5.0, cost 5.0. They cancel. That is why EBITDA shows "No impact". The part of the arrangement that weighed on profit was the 2.2 billion baht of depreciation and amortisation.

Read the right column. ADVANC did not walk away from the band: "AWN secured 2 x 15MHz of 2100MHz spectrum at an auction for a total value of Bt14,850mn. The 15-year license will take effect on 4 August 2025" (MD&A Q4 2025 & FY2025, page 3). The company estimates that new licence costs 0.96 billion baht of net profit in 2026.

A trap I will not fall into: it is tempting to subtract 0.96 from 1.76 and call the difference the saving. The two columns do not measure the same period. FY25 covers the time the contract was in force (to 3 August 2025); FY26 is a full-year estimate. The company does not make that subtraction, so neither do I.

The comparison base has already changed. Quarterly net profit (page 8 of Q2 2026; page 6 of Q3 2025; page 8 of Q4 2025 & FY2025):

The right-hand column is a fact of dates, not a forecast: from Q4 2025 onward, the year-ago quarter no longer contains the NT contract either. The 25% growth in Q2 2026 compares a quarter without the contract against one with it.

The balance sheet, read across years — and the special dividend

This axis is not about profit, but it changes how the profit ratios read in 2026.

Net debt to EBITDA, including lease liabilities and licence payable, as the company defines it:

ADVANC · FY2024: "Net debt to EBITDA (including lease liabilities and license payable) was at 2.2x in FY24, down from 2.9x in FY23, which was the peak from 3BBIF's lease liabilities and bridge loan from the acquisition … AIS aims to maintain leverage ratio, net debt to EBITDA, below 2.5x on sustain basis."

— MD&A FY2024, page 4 · original filing (SEC)

Then, in February 2026, the dividend:

ADVANC · FY2025: "the Board approved a special dividend at 19 Baht per share as a one-time capital return … The special dividend does not constitute any change to the Company's ordinary dividend policy"

— MD&A Q4 2025 & FY2025, page 3 · alongside an annual dividend of 15.3 baht per share (95% payout) · original filing (SEC)

What that did to the Q2 2026 balance sheet (pages 7 and 9):

• Dividend paid in 1H26: 81,516, against operating cash flow of 58,719; net borrowings received 32,649; net long-term debentures 16,205 (Source & Use, page 9).
• Interest-bearing debt 149,896 (+52%); total equity 52,380, "decreasing -51% from lower retained earning" (page 7).
• Net debt to EBITDA 2.0x "from 1.7x in FY25, reflecting higher interest-bearing debt after balance sheet restructuring"; the company "currently holds a BBB+ rating by S&P Global" (page 7).
• Return on equity 43% (Q2 2025) → 47% (Q1 2026) → 68% (Q2 2026); debt to equity 3.0 → 6.7 (page 9).

Read it fairly: equity halved, so the denominator of ROE halved. A 68% ROE here is mostly arithmetic on a smaller base and should not be read as operations getting that much better. Equally, the documents do not support calling the balance sheet stretched: the ratio the company manages to is 2.0x against its own 2.5x line, and the ordinary policy remains a minimum 70% of net profit (page 11).

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Finding 3 — Opportunity Day: an investor asks "is this a new base?"

At the Q2 2026 Opportunity Day on 7 August 2026, management spoke in Thai. The passages below are from the AI transcript, confirmed by two speech models; the English is our translation, and the links open the public recording at the minute.

The headline, as management put it. At 2:34: EBITDA grew 8% year on year, more than the 2–4% guidance, and net profit grew 26% — the same figures as the MD&A.

Leverage. At 3:08: this year the company began restructuring its capital for flexibility, keeping below 2.5x, which it described as investment-grade level — and said the company is now at 2x. At 30:41: the S&P rating is BBB+, the agency's threshold is 2.5x, and the company still has a buffer of 0.5x.

Guidance left unchanged. At 32:12: guidance was not raised because the company remains cautious about the economy and geopolitics in the second half, and there will be expenses linked to network investment. That matches the written guidance on page 11 of the MD&A:

ADVANC · FY2026 Q2: "Nevertheless, EBITDA growth is expected to moderate in 2H26, reflecting higher operating expenses associated with strategic investments in digital capabilities, scalable platforms, and customer experience, together with seasonally elevated marketing and administrative expenses toward year-end."

— MD&A Q2 2026, page 11 (guidance, maintained) · original filing (SEC)

Then the question itself. At 41:50 the moderator read an investor's question: NT costs and depreciation fell and profit jumped — can this profit be a new base?

The answer came in three parts:

1. At 41:59: most of AIS's growth comes from revenue growth in the core business — mobile, fixed broadband and enterprise.
2. At 42:21: on the NT cost — when the company had the contract with NT, it booked revenue and cost in roughly equal amounts, so the revenue and the cost both disappear. That is exactly the 5.0 / 5.0 in the page-10 table.
3. At 42:43: the lower depreciation comes from lower spectrum cost — the 2100 licence bought at auction last year came in cheaper — and the spectrum cost saving in depreciation can be a new base.

He went straight on, at 43:05: the company still invests continuously, data traffic grew 16% year on year (page 4 of the MD&A also shows +16%), and margin growth has to absorb that because revenue does not rise by the same amount.

So the call does what the MD&A does not: it puts the word "base" on one specific part — the depreciation saving — and not on the NT revenue and cost, which management says cancel out. It does not put a number on it.

Same event, different lines: TRUE

TRUE, another SET50 mobile operator, also had a spectrum arrangement with NT that ended on 3 August 2025. The businesses and the contracts are not the same, so I do not rank the two companies and do not compare leverage (the definitions differ). The only question is where the same event lands in each income statement. From TRUE's Q2 2026 MD&A:

• Revenue down 7.5% year on year, "primarily attributable to the reduction in network rental revenue following the expiration of the spectrum rental arrangement with NT on 3 August 2025" (page 3).
• On cost: "spectrum rental cost was eliminated" (page 4).
• EBITDA 28,335 (+13.5%), with new 2300/1500MHz spectrum bought for THB 26.4 billion over 15 years "resulting in annual savings of THB 7.1 billion benefitting EBITDA and annual amortization of THB 1.8 billion" (page 5).
• Depreciation and amortisation 17,453, "increasing by 5.2% YoY mainly due to acquisition of new spectrum" (page 5). Net profit 6,554 against 2,031 (page 5).

TRUE MD&A Q2 2026 (SEC) · page numbers are printed pages.

Put side by side, one date, two different shapes:

That is the practical lesson: compare two telecoms on EBITDA alone, or on net profit alone, and you see half the picture. TRUE is EP.11 in this series' queue; this file does not go further into it.

Major shareholder (Form 246-2)

The latest Form 246-2 filing shown in the Terminal: Gulf Development PCL crossed the 25% threshold on 13 January 2026, holding 40.44% after the transaction, with a waiver from making a tender offer. That percentage is as of the last filing, not necessarily today. I state who the major shareholder is; I draw no link between that and the dividend.

What the documents say / what they do not

The documents say:

1. Core service revenue and EBITDA in 1H26 ran ahead of the company's own guidance.
2. The NT arrangement's revenue and cost were equal (5.0 / 5.0 billion baht) and ended together, so EBITDA was not affected; the profit effect was 2.2 billion baht of depreciation and amortisation. Management calls the depreciation saving a new base.
3. The new 2100MHz licence costs an estimated 0.96 billion baht of net profit in 2026.
4. From Q4 2025 on, the year-ago comparison no longer contains the NT contract.
5. The special dividend halved equity and raised interest-bearing debt by 52%; net debt to EBITDA is 2.0x against the company's 2.5x ceiling.

The documents do not say:

1. How the 26% vs 8% gap splits by cause, quarter by quarter. The page-10 table is annual only.
2. How much 2H26 EBITDA growth will moderate. The guidance says "moderate" without a number.
3. What the virtual bank will cost during its build-up. The MD&A says only that "these investments are expected to dilute EBITDA during the initial investment phase", with profitability "from its fourth year of operations onward" (page 11).

Where to look next: the Q3 2026 MD&A, due shortly. Four lines: net profit against the Q3 2025 base of 12,039; the depreciation line; EBITDA growth against the 2–4% guidance; net debt to EBITDA against 2.5x.

The answer

Where does the gap come from? From below EBITDA. In the company's own accounting, the NT contract's revenue and cost cancelled, so its end left EBITDA unchanged; what it removed was depreciation and amortisation, which lifts profit but not EBITDA. Management says that depreciation saving can be a new base, offset in part by the new licence (about 0.96 billion baht in 2026) and by continuing network investment. Is it a new base? For that one component, the company and its management say yes. The documents do not yet show how much of the 26% it explains in a given quarter — and from Q4 2025 onward the year-on-year comparison no longer contains the contract at all, so that part of the growth rate cannot repeat.

Run it yourself in the Terminal

1. Open the search with this file's query: lower depreciation following the expiration of the 2100MHz NT agreement.
2. Open ADVANC's result and click it: the Q2 2026 MD&A opens with the sentence highlighted. Check the page number.
3. In the same PDF, go to page 10 for the accounting-impact table.
4. Run the same query and open TRUE's result to see how the other operator wrote the same event.
5. Search management's words from Opportunity Day and open the recording at the minute (around 43:05 for this answer).
6. Open ADVANC's full scan for the Form 246-2 major-shareholder card.

Free to start: sign in with Google, 100 credits a day, no card. The free tier covers roughly the last five quarters, which includes the Q2 2026 MD&A and Opportunity Day used here; the year-by-year leverage table above draws on older MD&As.

Traps in reading this set of documents

• "No impact on EBITDA" is not "no impact". The NT contract's effect sat in depreciation, below EBITDA. Read the line the company points to, not just the headline metric.
• Do not subtract columns that measure different periods. FY25 (contract in force to 3 August) and FY26 (full-year estimate) in the page-10 table are not like for like.
• ROE after a special dividend. Halve the equity and ROE jumps. The 68% is mostly the denominator.
• AI transcripts drop decimal points. At 11:38 of this Opportunity Day, the AI transcript heard average ARPU growth as "31%"; the MD&A (page 4) says blended ARPU +3.1%. An Opportunity Day highlight built from that transcript repeated the error and has since been corrected. Every spoken number here was checked against the MD&A.
• Same event, different accounts. ADVANC and TRUE booked the end of their NT arrangements in different lines. A one-metric comparison misleads.

Sources

• ADVANC MD&A (English): Q2 2026 p.2, 4, 6–11 · Q4 2025 & FY2025 p.3, 8, 9 · Q3 2025 p.6 · Q2 2025 p.8 · FY2024 p.4 · FY2023 p.5
• SET Opportunity Day Q2 2026, 7 August 2026: recording minutes 2:34 · 3:08 · 30:41 · 32:12 · 41:50 · 41:59 · 42:21 · 42:43 · 43:05 (AI transcript in Thai, two models; English is our translation)
• TRUE MD&A Q2 2026: printed p.3–5
• Form 246-2 (SEC), 13 January 2026 — percentage as of the latest filing, via the Terminal's ADVANC full scan

Read on

• Previous case: DELTA Q3 2026 — inventory nearly doubled; what eased and what did not
• First case: SCGP Q3 2026 — Indonesia turns a profit; how far do the filings confirm it?
• MD&A across years: reading PSL management narrative FY2021–FY2026
• Opportunity Day transcripts: Thai earnings calls, searchable

Do this on your own book: Boom Leverage Terminal — free with Google sign-in, 100 credits a day. For teams and institutions (seats, Excel export, API, or a case file like this on a company you name): the Enterprise page or contact@boomleverage.com.

Disclaimer: This article summarises what the company's documents say, for education and research. It is not investment advice, has no price target, is not a recommendation to buy or sell, and does not forecast the share price.

Author's holdings: the author does not hold ADVANC shares as of 3 November 2026.

Voice and translation: the Thai narration in the video is an AI clone of the creator's voice, made with the voice owner's consent. Opportunity Day remarks are from an AI transcript in Thai checked with a second model; the English renderings are our translation.